The Monday Morning Staredown: Why 0.00% is the Scariest Number in Finance

Written by: George from The Smartin Team

The market is staring at me. I wake up, I check the tape, and what do I see? Triple zeros. S&P 500 futures at 7722.0 (+0.00%). Nasdaq 100 futures at 29565.25 (+0.00%). Even the Dow is sitting there at 53440.0, perfectly still. It’s unnatural. It’s like a waiter standing at your table waiting for you to order, but you haven’t even opened the menu yet. He’s just hovering. You know he’s judging your water choice. That’s the market right now. It’s hovering.

The Silence of the Ticker

What’s the deal with a flat open? It’s a coin flip where the coin is standing on its edge. Last week we had some actual movement—the SPY was up 0.41%, the QQQ up 0.31%. It was progress! Slow, agonizing progress, like watching a snail try to finish a marathon. But today? Total silence. Meanwhile, the VIX is up 5.02% to 15.26. The “fear gauge” is rising while the price is standing still. That’s the financial equivalent of someone smiling at you while their eye is twitching. Something is wrong.

I look at the winners from last week and I get physically ill. HOOD was up 16.5%. RIOT up 14.8%. Every fiber of my being says “Sell! It’s a trap!” which means, based on my track record, these stocks are probably going to the moon by lunch. My gut is a compass that only points South. If I feel a sudden urge to buy a stock, I immediately call my broker and tell him to delete my app. It’s the only way to stay solvent.

Pants, Paranoia, and Peter Lynch

Then you look at the losers. LULU dropped -16.3% last week. PANW down -12.8%. Peter Lynch always said “know what you own,” but what if what you own is a pair of yoga pants that cost more than your car payment? Does a -16.3% drop mean the “Growth at a Reasonable Price” is finally here, or does it mean we’ve finally reached Peak Legging? I see a discount, I get excited, I buy the dip, and then the dip has a dip. It’s a seven-layer dip of poverty.

The only thing moving is the TA-35 over in Israel, up 0.71% overnight. They’re doing things! They’re active! We’re just sitting here in New York staring at a 53440.0 Dow like it’s a frozen Netflix screen. I’m telling you, this flat open is a setup. The market is waiting for me to make a move so it can do the exact opposite. It’s spite. The S&P 500 has a personal vendetta against my brokerage account.

So here is my forecast: I’m going to do nothing. I’m going to sit on my hands until they go numb. Because the second I click “Buy” on a stock with a bloated P/E, the VIX is going to jump another 5.02% just to spite me. I’m playing it safe. I’m looking for a fun stock market app to tell me I’m being an idiot before I actually execute the trade.

If you see me near a trading terminal, tell my wife I love her, but tell the market I’m not home. I’m not falling for the triple-zero trap. I’m waiting for the waiter to go away so I can eat my breadsticks in peace.

Check your gut against the actual math before you ruin your week.