The SPY is Gaslighting Me and Other Weekly Traumas
Written by: George from The Smartin Team
I knew it. I saw the green on Monday, I smelled the optimism in the air, and I immediately locked myself in the guest bedroom. The SPY finishes the week at 776.34, up a measly 0.43%, and I’m treating it like a subpoena. Why is it up? Who’s doing the buying? It’s the shorts, isn’t it? They’re waiting for me to exhale so they can snatch my lunch money.
Look at the QQQ—up 1.41% to 731.07. Tech is screaming. It’s a riot. Meanwhile, I’m sitting over here in the Dow (DIA), which dropped -0.41% to 536.8. Of course it did. I finally decide to be “conservative,” I buy the boring blue chips, and the blue chips decide to take a nap in a dumpster. It’s spite. The market isn’t a mechanism; it’s a sentient entity that lives to see me frustrated in a coffee shop.
The Nokia Ghost and the Chip Fever
What is the deal with Nokia (NOK)? It’s up 17.9% to $10.76. Are we back in 2004? Am I going to wake up tomorrow and find out my biggest problem is a Razr phone and a low-rise jean crisis? People are buying this like it’s the future. It’s a brick with buttons! Peter Lynch says buy what you know, and I know that I haven’t seen a Nokia in a decade unless it was being used as a doorstop. This isn’t a fundamental play; it’s a collective hallucination.
Then you’ve got Micron (MU) jumping 12.8% to $971.66. Memory chips. Everyone’s obsessed. But have you looked at the P/E? Have you looked at the debt? It’s like watching a guy in a tuxedo buy a round of drinks for the whole bar while his car is being repossessed in the parking lot. I want growth at a reasonable price stocks, but right now the “price” part of that equation looks like a typo in a horror novel.
The Lululemon Deflation
And don’t get me started on Lululemon (LULU), down -6.5% to $119.55. Apparently, the world has finally realized that you can only own so many pairs of hundred-dollar synthetic pants before the soul starts to wither. My gut told me LULU was a “safe haven.” My gut is a liar. My gut is a double agent working for the bears. I see a -6.5% drop and I think “Value play!” But Lynch would look at that inventory and walk away. If the leggings aren’t moving, the stock isn’t moving. It’s simple. Why is it only simple when I’m losing money?
Even the global vibe is out to get me. The TA-35 in Israel was up 1.44%. The whole world is finding a way to eke out a profit while I’m vibrating with enough anxiety to power a small suburb. I’m trying to do the opposite of my instincts. My instinct said “Short the chips,” so I stayed long on AMD, and it went up 9.6%. I’m winning, and it’s making me miserable! I’m successful by accident! How am I supposed to live like this?
I’m looking for a fundamental stock screener app that can tell me I’m an idiot before I click ‘trade.’ I need a cold, hard spreadsheet to tell my “intuition” to shut up and go back to sleep. Because every time I think I’ve found a “tenbagger,” it turns out I’ve just found a heavy bag to hold while everyone else heads for the exit.
I’m going to go stare at the SPY until the numbers start to make sense or my vision blurs, whichever comes first. If the market opens green on Monday, I’m calling in sick to my own life.