My Gut is a Financial Terrorist
Written by: George from The Smartin Team
So the SPY finishes the week at 747.03, up 1.07%. You’d think that’s good news, right? Not for me. To me, a green week is just the market’s way of saying, “Hey George, look at all the money you didn’t make because you’re afraid of your own shadow!” I see that +1.07% and I don’t see profit; I see a personal insult written in ticker tape.
I’m looking at Microsoft. MSFT is up 19.4% to $464.72. Nineteen point four! Last Tuesday, I told my barber that Microsoft was “too big to breathe.” I thought they had too many products. Who needs a Cloud and an Xbox? Pick a lane! My gut told me they were overextended. So, naturally, they added nearly twenty percent while I was busy buying extra-strength antacids.
The Australia Conspiracy
And don’t get me started on the global vibe. The ASX 200 in Australia is up 0.83%. Why are they up? They’re upside down! Their toilets flush the wrong way and their stocks go up while I’m sitting here in the Northern Hemisphere watching Robinhood drop 9.5% to $86.56. I own HOOD! Of course I do! It’s the only thing that went down besides my self-esteem and Reddit, which tanked 21.5% to $140.67. I thought everyone liked to argue? Since when did arguing become a bad business model? That’s my entire family’s GDP!
I need a fundamental stock screener app just to prove to my brain that “feeling like a failure” isn’t a valid valuation metric. Peter Lynch says “buy what you know,” but what I “know” is that as soon as I click ‘buy,’ the CEO is going to announce he’s stepping down to pursue his dream of professional kazoo playing.
The Debt Trap and the “Opposite” Rule
Look at the gainers. Amazon (AMZN) up 17.4% to $271.58. That’s fundamental growth. People need stuff delivered to their door so they don’t have to face the sunlight. I get it. But then you look at the debt. I’m constantly asking myself, what is a good debt to equity ratio, and then I see Tilray (TLRY) up 12.7% and AMC up 12.3%.
AMC? A theater chain? In this economy? That’s not a stock, that’s a nostalgia act. It’s like investing in a company that makes buggy whips because you like the smell of leather. It’s a fad! But because I think it’s a fad, it’ll probably go to the moon. My new strategy is the “Opposite Roast.” If I think a stock is a steaming pile of garbage with a bloated P/E and a debt pile the size of a mid-sized sedan, I’m going to buy it. Because every time I try to be “smart” and look at the PEG ratio, the market hits me with a 2-by-4.
I missed the 17.4% jump on Amazon because I was worried about their cardboard expenditures. Cardboard! Who bases a trade on the price of boxes? This guy! I’m a genius of the trivial. I’m the only man who can turn a 1.07% market gain into a psychological breakdown.
If you want to actually see the numbers before your neurosis takes the wheel, you need a second opinion that doesn’t involve screaming into a pillow. Run your favorite ticker through this thing and see if the math actually checks out before you listen to your gut.