Monday Morning Forecast: The Silence of the Tapes
Written by: George from The Smartin Team
I’m looking at the screen and the futures are “unavailable.” Do you know what that means? In my life, “unavailable” is what the girl at the rental car counter says when she’s staring at my credit score. It’s what the waiter says when I ask if they have any more of the special. It’s not “no data.” It’s a “get out” sign. It’s the market telling me to go back to sleep before I hurt myself.
But I can’t sleep. I’m up. I’m caffeinated. And I’m looking at last week’s carnage like it’s a crime scene photo.
The Gut-Check Massacre
My gut—my horrible, treacherous gut—told me last week that things were finally turning around. So, naturally, TSLA dropped 13.5% and GOOGL slid 9.7%. If I had a nickel for every time my instinct cost me a month’s rent, I’d have enough nickels to melt them down and sell the copper for a profit. Which would be my only successful trade of the year.
Look at RIOT. Up 19.9% last week. MU up 14.4%. My instinct was to stay away from anything that sounds like a noise a cow makes or a small-scale civil uprising. So, of course, they’re the only things moving. It’s spite. The tape is moving out of pure spite for my personal bank account.
The “Know What You Own” Delusion
Everybody is running around asking how to find tenbagger stocks, like it’s a scavenger hunt. You want a tenbagger? Stop buying things because the CEO has a cool leather jacket. Peter Lynch says “know what you own,” but most people own stuff they can’t even pronounce. “Oh, I’m heavily invested in a decentralized AI-ledger-based cloud solution.” You’re invested in a magic trick! You’re buying a hat and hoping there’s a rabbit in it.
I know what I own. I own a used sedan with a check engine light that blinks in Morse code and a portfolio that looks like a “Before” photo for a bankruptcy lawyer.
The global overnight was quiet. Australia, Israel, Europe—nothing. Silence. You know who else is quiet? The guy in the horror movie right before the monster comes out of the vents. It’s “horror movie basement” quiet. No drama to lean on. Just me, a blank futures screen, and the mounting realization that I’m probably going to do something stupid by 9:31 AM.
The P/E ratios on some of these tech losers are still higher than my blood pressure after a three-egg omelet. If you’re looking for The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Peter Lynch Investing, rule number one should be: if the valuation makes you want to lie down in a dark room, it’s probably not a “value play.” It’s a cry for help.
I’m going to do the opposite of what I feel. My heart says buy the TSLA dip. So I’m going to go buy a bagel and stare at a wall. That’s my hedge. That’s my strategy.