I’m sitting here looking at a Euro Stoxx 50 that’s up 1.02%, and you’d think I’d be happy. I’m not happy. I’m suspicious. Why is Europe up? What do they know that I don’t? And then I look at the TA-35 in Israel, down 1.74%. That’s the signal! That’s the leak in the boat! My every instinct is screaming to liquidate my entire life and move into a bunker made of canned tuna, which, according to my track record, means we are probably on the verge of a ten-year bull run.
The SPY finished the week at 746.74, up a modest 0.93%, while the QQQ screamed ahead to 740.62, a 2.67% jump. It’s a tech-led frenzy, and I’m terrified because my gut says tech is a bubble, which means I must legally find a good peg ratio for tech stocks and buy them immediately to spite my own intuition.
If you want to see where the blood is pumping, look at the chips. MU (Micron) absolutely detonated with a 15.52% gain to 1133.99. AMD followed suit, up 5.04% to 537.37, while NVDA sat back with a “modest” 2.68% gain to 210.69.
From a Peter Lynch perspective, this is where the neurosis gets clinical. Lynch loved growth, but he hated paying for it more than he loved it. If MU is growing earnings at 30% but its P/E is flying into the stratosphere, the PEG ratio starts looking like a vertical cliff. My brain tells me to run, so I’m forcing myself to stay. I’m looking at these numbers and realizing that the market doesn’t care about my feelings or my need for a 1.0 PEG. It wants chips, and it wants them now. Even INTC managed to claw back 7.56% to 133.99. It’s a semiconductor world; I’m just a man losing sleep in it.
While the nerds are winning, the “reliable” stocks are treating me like a personal punching bag. IBM collapsed 8.5% this week to 249.1. My father always said, “You never get fired for buying IBM.” Well, Dad, you might not get fired, but you will get margin-called.
Then we look at Big Oil. XOM down 6.26%, CVX down 7.26%, and OXY—the Buffett darling—sliding 8.35% to 51.82. Lynch always warned about “cyclicals” that look cheap on a P/E basis but are actually at the top of their earnings cycle. The debt-to-equity ratios here aren’t the primary horror show—it’s the stagnant growth. If the earnings aren’t there to support the price, it doesn’t matter how many oil rigs you own. I wanted to buy the dip on OXY, but because I wanted it, I didn’t do it. And wouldn’t you know it? I actually saved money. This “Opposite George” strategy is the only thing keeping me afloat.
The most offensive part of this week isn’t the tech surge; it’s the garbage fire of speculative stocks. AMC jumped 20.94% to 2.83. RBLX flew 18.98% to 51.53. HOOD climbed 16.05% to 108.15.
There is zero Lynchian fundamental logic to AMC gaining 20% in a week where their balance sheet still looks like a disaster movie. It defies every rule in The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Peter Lynch Investing. But then I see MSFT down 2.9% and NFLX down 3.68%. The “safe” winners are being sold to fund the circus. It’s madness.
I’m currently staring at my screen, watching HOOD climb, and every fiber of my being wants to short it into the sun. But I won’t. Because if I short it, it will go to $1,000. I am a reverse-indicator. I am the human embodiment of a market top. To survive, I’ve started using this fun stock market app called Smartin. It doesn’t have feelings. It doesn’t have a father who disappointed it with bad IBM advice. It just looks at the PEG, the debt, and the cash, and tells me I’m being an idiot.
If you’re tired of your own brain sabotaging your portfolio, stop listening to your gut. Your gut is full of half-digested pretzels and bad decisions. Check the Latest Fintainment Roasts and let the data do the screaming for a change.
Look, someone has to keep you from yourself this week, and it’s not gonna be me — I’m a wreck. Let Smartin do it. Free, fast, and mercifully unemotional.